DDM Analysis: 1702.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$72.57 - $85.55	$80.15
Multi-Stage	$158.89 - $175.01	$166.79
Blended Fair Value	$123.47
Current Price	$1.55
Upside	7,865.89%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	16.48%	0.00%	0.07	0.07	0.08	0.04	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.28
YoY Growth	-	-	2.64%	-14.46%	99.14%	-23.10%	59.50%	101.05%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.91%	3.81%	3.59%	2.06%	3.22%	1.59%	0.69%	0.00%	0.00%	20.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	276.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	65.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)	210.48

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	55.25	34.53	20.72
Cash Retained (M)	210.48	210.48	210.48
(-) Cash Required (M)	-55.25	-34.53	-20.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)	155.24	175.95	189.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	620.94	620.94	620.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.25	0.28	0.31
LTM Dividend per Share	0.11	0.11	0.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.25	0.28	0.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.36	0.39	0.41
WACC / Discount Rate	-21.36%	-21.36%	-21.36%
Growth Rate	1.95%	2.95%	3.95%
Fair Value	$72.57	$80.15	$85.55
Upside / Downside	4,581.69%	5,070.83%	5,419.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	276.23	284.38	292.78	301.43	310.33	319.49	329.08
Payout Ratio	23.80%	37.04%	50.28%	63.52%	76.76%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	65.75	105.34	147.21	191.47	238.21	287.54	304.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	-21.36%	-21.36%	-21.36%
Growth Rate	1.95%	2.95%	3.95%
Year 1 PV (M)	132.66	133.96	135.26
Year 2 PV (M)	233.46	238.06	242.71
Year 3 PV (M)	382.38	393.74	405.32
Year 4 PV (M)	599.08	622.93	647.49
Year 5 PV (M)	910.66	956.21	1,003.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)	96,403.77	101,225.29	106,237.83
Equity Value (M)	98,662.00	103,570.19	108,672.16
Shares Outstanding (M)	620.94	620.94	620.94
Fair Value	$158.89	$166.79	$175.01
Upside / Downside	10,150.99%	10,660.95%	11,191.05%

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Dongguang Chemical Limited (1702.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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