Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Yadea Group Holdings Ltd. (1585.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.10 - $15.99$13.49
Multi-Stage$10.03 - $10.86$10.44
Blended Fair Value$11.96
Current Price$11.46
Upside4.37%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS52.08%30.07%0.280.360.230.150.090.040.030.030.000.04
YoY Growth---21.48%55.20%55.52%71.64%150.04%4.45%-3.57%0.00%-100.00%79.34%
Dividend Yield--2.34%2.96%2.03%1.21%0.65%1.91%1.26%1.52%0.00%3.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,373.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,954.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,419.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)874.78546.74328.04
Cash Retained (M)2,419.772,419.772,419.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-874.78-546.74-328.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,544.991,873.032,091.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,018.053,018.053,018.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.510.620.69
LTM Dividend per Share0.650.650.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.510.620.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.161.271.34
WACC / Discount Rate16.51%16.51%16.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11.10$13.49$15.99
Upside / Downside-3.10%17.67%39.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,373.924,658.224,961.015,283.475,626.905,992.656,172.43
Payout Ratio44.68%53.74%62.81%71.87%80.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,954.152,503.423,115.833,797.284,554.165,393.385,709.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate16.51%16.51%16.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,128.412,148.582,168.76
Year 2 PV (M)2,252.252,295.152,338.45
Year 3 PV (M)2,333.662,400.652,468.91
Year 4 PV (M)2,379.552,471.062,565.18
Year 5 PV (M)2,395.902,511.622,631.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,766.9419,673.3920,614.54
Equity Value (M)30,256.7131,500.4632,787.61
Shares Outstanding (M)3,018.053,018.053,018.05
Fair Value$10.03$10.44$10.86
Upside / Downside-12.52%-8.92%-5.20%

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