Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Q P Group Holdings Limited (1412.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.71 - $5.76$4.65
Multi-Stage$8.79 - $9.67$9.22
Blended Fair Value$6.94
Current Price$1.50
Upside362.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.130.140.140.110.020.020.030.060.00
YoY Growth---100.00%-7.14%0.00%27.27%485.20%0.00%-33.33%-50.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%10.48%10.29%11.38%12.09%1.71%1.71%0.00%5.13%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)209.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)154.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)54.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.8426.1515.69
Cash Retained (M)54.9454.9454.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.84-26.15-15.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.0928.7839.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)532.00532.00532.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.050.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.050.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.71$4.65$5.76
Upside / Downside147.03%210.23%283.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)209.22207.12205.05203.00200.97198.96204.93
Payout Ratio73.74%76.99%80.25%83.50%86.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)154.28159.47164.54169.50174.34179.07189.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)148.48149.99151.51
Year 2 PV (M)142.64145.56148.52
Year 3 PV (M)136.80141.03145.35
Year 4 PV (M)131.01136.44142.03
Year 5 PV (M)125.28131.80138.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,993.934,201.904,418.45
Equity Value (M)4,678.134,906.735,144.45
Shares Outstanding (M)532.00532.00532.00
Fair Value$8.79$9.22$9.67
Upside / Downside486.23%514.88%544.67%

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