Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shandong Weigao Group Medical Polymer Company Limited (1066.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.09 - $21.79$16.15
Multi-Stage$13.60 - $14.88$14.23
Blended Fair Value$15.19
Current Price$5.57
Upside172.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.12%12.11%0.190.160.160.140.150.160.050.120.060.07
YoY Growth--18.83%-1.21%13.52%-6.85%-1.42%226.49%-61.48%124.00%-23.77%19.35%
Dividend Yield--4.44%2.40%1.44%1.81%1.04%2.70%0.84%2.30%1.19%1.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,879.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,603.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,275.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)775.82484.89290.93
Cash Retained (M)2,275.902,275.902,275.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-775.82-484.89-290.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,500.081,791.011,984.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,564.334,564.334,564.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.390.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.390.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.680.740.79
WACC / Discount Rate8.56%8.56%8.56%
Growth Rate2.78%3.78%4.78%
Fair Value$12.09$16.15$21.79
Upside / Downside117.07%189.89%291.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,879.124,025.604,177.624,335.374,499.084,668.974,809.04
Payout Ratio41.33%51.06%60.80%70.53%80.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,603.222,055.622,539.893,057.813,611.224,202.074,448.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.56%8.56%8.56%
Growth Rate2.78%3.78%4.78%
Year 1 PV (M)1,875.361,893.611,911.86
Year 2 PV (M)2,113.982,155.322,197.06
Year 3 PV (M)2,321.882,390.312,460.08
Year 4 PV (M)2,501.642,600.442,702.13
Year 5 PV (M)2,655.692,787.432,924.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)50,604.1853,114.4255,723.31
Equity Value (M)62,072.7464,941.5367,918.77
Shares Outstanding (M)4,564.334,564.334,564.33
Fair Value$13.60$14.23$14.88
Upside / Downside144.16%155.44%167.15%

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