Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jungfraubahn Holding AG (0QNG.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: General TransportationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,323.10 - $4,808.50$4,505.68
Multi-Stage$1,262.79 - $1,385.93$1,323.20
Blended Fair Value$2,914.44
Current Price$202.00
Upside1,342.79%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.76%13.43%6.523.710.000.000.002.882.482.172.061.85
YoY Growth--75.58%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%16.27%14.31%5.06%11.40%0.06%
Dividend Yield--3.75%2.32%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.74%1.90%1.70%2.11%1.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)138.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)58.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)80.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.7217.3210.39
Cash Retained (M)80.0980.0980.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.72-17.32-10.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)52.3862.7769.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.655.655.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share9.2711.1012.33
LTM Dividend per Share10.3510.3510.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share9.2711.1012.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend19.6121.4522.68
WACC / Discount Rate4.90%4.90%4.90%
Growth Rate4.02%5.02%6.02%
Fair Value$2,323.10$4,505.68$4,808.50
Upside / Downside1,050.05%2,130.53%2,280.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)138.58145.54152.85160.52168.59177.05182.36
Payout Ratio42.20%51.76%61.32%70.88%80.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)58.4975.3493.73113.78135.61159.35168.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.90%4.90%4.90%
Growth Rate4.02%5.02%6.02%
Year 1 PV (M)71.1371.8272.50
Year 2 PV (M)83.5685.1886.81
Year 3 PV (M)95.7898.57101.41
Year 4 PV (M)107.79111.99116.32
Year 5 PV (M)119.59125.44131.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,660.216,986.567,325.58
Equity Value (M)7,138.067,479.567,834.14
Shares Outstanding (M)5.655.655.65
Fair Value$1,262.79$1,323.20$1,385.93
Upside / Downside525.14%555.05%586.10%

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