Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Vontobel Holding AG (0QKE.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$138.04 - $304.73$198.77
Multi-Stage$159.46 - $174.58$166.88
Blended Fair Value$182.83
Current Price$64.10
Upside185.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.48%7.36%2.972.962.862.252.222.072.272.101.801.52
YoY Growth--0.65%3.50%26.75%1.66%6.84%-8.78%8.53%16.46%18.45%3.83%
Dividend Yield--4.68%5.42%4.66%2.82%3.16%3.00%4.57%3.41%3.37%3.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)410.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)254.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)156.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)82.1951.3730.82
Cash Retained (M)156.20156.20156.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-82.19-51.37-30.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)74.01104.83125.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)57.0857.0857.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.301.842.20
LTM Dividend per Share4.464.464.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.301.842.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.766.306.66
WACC / Discount Rate7.16%7.16%7.16%
Growth Rate2.87%3.87%4.87%
Fair Value$138.04$198.77$304.73
Upside / Downside115.36%210.10%375.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)410.95426.84443.34460.48478.28496.77511.68
Payout Ratio61.99%67.59%73.19%78.80%84.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)254.75288.51324.50362.84403.66447.10473.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.16%7.16%7.16%
Growth Rate2.87%3.87%4.87%
Year 1 PV (M)266.65269.24271.83
Year 2 PV (M)277.18282.60288.06
Year 3 PV (M)286.45294.88303.48
Year 4 PV (M)294.52306.14318.10
Year 5 PV (M)301.49316.44331.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,676.518,056.968,452.36
Equity Value (M)9,102.809,526.269,965.80
Shares Outstanding (M)57.0857.0857.08
Fair Value$159.46$166.88$174.58
Upside / Downside148.77%160.34%172.35%

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