Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Southern Copper Corporation (0L8B.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$213.52 - $946.72$503.13
Multi-Stage$112.34 - $122.74$117.45
Blended Fair Value$310.29
Current Price$121.36
Upside155.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.15%15.70%2.043.853.373.081.441.591.350.570.170.34
YoY Growth---47.06%14.29%9.38%113.33%-8.94%17.66%137.29%227.42%-48.64%-28.82%
Dividend Yield--2.23%3.78%4.64%4.27%2.24%5.92%3.52%1.10%0.51%1.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,820.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,303.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,517.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)764.18477.61286.57
Cash Retained (M)1,517.001,517.001,517.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-764.18-477.61-286.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)752.821,039.391,230.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)802.65802.65802.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.941.291.53
LTM Dividend per Share2.872.872.87
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.941.291.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.814.174.40
WACC / Discount Rate7.38%7.38%7.38%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$213.52$503.13$946.72
Upside / Downside75.94%314.57%680.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,820.904,069.264,333.764,615.454,915.465,234.965,392.01
Payout Ratio60.30%66.24%72.18%78.12%84.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,303.902,695.393,128.043,605.544,131.914,711.474,987.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.38%7.38%7.38%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,486.532,510.102,533.67
Year 2 PV (M)2,662.062,712.762,763.94
Year 3 PV (M)2,830.672,911.922,994.72
Year 4 PV (M)2,992.553,107.633,226.01
Year 5 PV (M)3,147.893,299.933,457.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)76,052.4179,725.7783,539.71
Equity Value (M)90,172.0994,268.1198,515.85
Shares Outstanding (M)802.65802.65802.65
Fair Value$112.34$117.45$122.74
Upside / Downside-7.43%-3.23%1.14%

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