Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Tubacex, S.A. (0KD1.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.97 - $63.50$43.26
Multi-Stage$8.14 - $8.88$8.50
Blended Fair Value$25.88
Current Price$4.22
Upside513.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.30%17.04%0.120.070.000.000.000.050.000.000.030.08
YoY Growth--79.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-64.59%216.17%
Dividend Yield--3.01%1.96%0.00%0.00%0.00%3.74%0.00%0.00%0.92%3.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)39.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.934.962.97
Cash Retained (M)0.160.160.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.93-4.96-2.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)-7.77-4.80-2.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)124.20124.20124.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.06-0.04-0.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.06-0.04-0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.280.30
WACC / Discount Rate7.19%7.19%7.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$15.97$43.26$63.50
Upside / Downside278.37%925.14%1,404.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)39.6642.2444.9847.9051.0254.3355.96
Payout Ratio99.60%97.68%95.76%93.84%91.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.5041.2643.0744.9546.9048.9051.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.19%7.19%7.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)38.1338.4938.85
Year 2 PV (M)36.7937.4938.20
Year 3 PV (M)35.4836.5037.54
Year 4 PV (M)34.2135.5336.88
Year 5 PV (M)32.9734.5636.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)833.41873.66915.46
Equity Value (M)1,010.991,056.241,103.14
Shares Outstanding (M)124.20124.20124.20
Fair Value$8.14$8.50$8.88
Upside / Downside92.89%101.52%110.47%

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