DDM Analysis: 0K3B.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$38.65 - $60.79	$48.80
Multi-Stage	$58.77 - $64.54	$61.60
Blended Fair Value	$55.20
Current Price	$34.68
Upside	59.17%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	32.14%	-3.40%	0.85	1.10	0.62	0.33	0.24	0.21	0.12	0.66	1.21	1.21
YoY Growth	-	-	-23.01%	77.85%	90.65%	36.81%	12.80%	74.55%	-81.72%	-45.31%	0.10%	0.58%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.15%	3.40%	1.35%	0.49%	0.75%	1.95%	0.43%	2.72%	4.14%	4.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,229.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	277.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	952.20

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	245.84	153.65	92.19
Cash Retained (M)	952.20	952.20	952.20
(-) Cash Required (M)	-245.84	-153.65	-92.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)	706.36	798.55	860.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	318.65	318.65	318.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.22	2.51	2.70
LTM Dividend per Share	0.87	0.87	0.87
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.22	2.51	2.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend	3.09	3.38	3.57
WACC / Discount Rate	8.07%	8.07%	8.07%
Growth Rate	0.08%	1.08%	2.08%
Fair Value	$38.65	$48.80	$60.79
Upside / Downside	11.44%	40.71%	75.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,229.20	1,242.44	1,255.82	1,269.35	1,283.03	1,296.85	1,335.75
Payout Ratio	22.53%	36.03%	49.52%	63.01%	76.51%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	277.00	447.63	621.90	799.87	981.60	1,167.16	1,235.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.07%	8.07%	8.07%
Growth Rate	0.08%	1.08%	2.08%
Year 1 PV (M)	410.11	414.21	418.30
Year 2 PV (M)	522.01	532.50	543.09
Year 3 PV (M)	615.13	633.75	652.75
Year 4 PV (M)	691.61	719.67	748.58
Year 5 PV (M)	753.43	791.83	831.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)	15,735.38	16,537.41	17,371.82
Equity Value (M)	18,727.67	19,629.37	20,566.31
Shares Outstanding (M)	318.65	318.65	318.65
Fair Value	$58.77	$61.60	$64.54
Upside / Downside	69.47%	77.63%	86.11%

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The Mosaic Company (0K3B.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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