Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Lowe's Companies, Inc. (0JVQ.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$473.85 - $2,404.23$976.84
Multi-Stage$263.01 - $287.53$275.05
Blended Fair Value$625.94
Current Price$238.13
Upside162.86%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS9.66%12.06%4.584.514.233.543.042.892.592.302.001.71
YoY Growth--1.38%6.79%19.46%16.43%5.32%11.20%12.97%14.90%17.14%16.42%
Dividend Yield--2.01%1.94%2.05%1.79%1.55%2.76%2.31%2.73%2.32%2.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,779.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,613.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,166.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,355.80847.38508.43
Cash Retained (M)4,166.004,166.004,166.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,355.80-847.38-508.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,810.203,318.633,657.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)560.75560.75560.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.015.926.52
LTM Dividend per Share4.664.664.66
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.015.926.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.6710.5811.18
WACC / Discount Rate7.65%7.65%7.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$473.85$976.84$2,404.23
Upside / Downside98.99%310.21%909.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,779.007,219.647,688.918,188.698,720.969,287.829,566.45
Payout Ratio38.55%48.84%59.13%69.42%79.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,613.003,525.814,546.255,684.446,951.408,359.048,848.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.65%7.65%7.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,244.403,275.153,305.91
Year 2 PV (M)3,849.503,922.823,996.83
Year 3 PV (M)4,429.094,556.234,685.79
Year 4 PV (M)4,983.965,175.635,372.77
Year 5 PV (M)5,514.865,781.236,057.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)125,461.94131,521.79137,813.58
Equity Value (M)147,483.74154,232.86161,232.67
Shares Outstanding (M)560.75560.75560.75
Fair Value$263.01$275.05$287.53
Upside / Downside10.45%15.50%20.75%

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