Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (0ITL.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - BrokersSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,009.35 - $1,259.49$1,180.33
Multi-Stage$215.97 - $236.49$226.04
Blended Fair Value$703.19
Current Price$309.74
Upside127.02%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.35%8.94%2.081.871.701.551.371.271.191.121.081.02
YoY Growth--10.94%10.27%9.57%12.84%8.19%6.39%6.76%3.86%5.71%15.42%
Dividend Yield--0.60%0.76%0.89%0.89%1.10%1.56%1.51%1.63%1.90%2.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,601.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)631.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)969.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)320.24200.15120.09
Cash Retained (M)969.90969.90969.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-320.24-200.15-120.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)649.66769.75849.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)252.83252.83252.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.573.043.36
LTM Dividend per Share2.502.502.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.573.043.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.075.545.86
WACC / Discount Rate6.03%6.03%6.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,009.35$1,180.33$1,259.49
Upside / Downside225.87%281.07%306.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,601.201,705.281,816.121,934.172,059.892,193.782,259.60
Payout Ratio39.43%49.54%59.66%69.77%79.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)631.30844.821,083.431,349.481,645.551,974.402,090.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.03%6.03%6.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)789.29796.78804.26
Year 2 PV (M)945.69963.71981.89
Year 3 PV (M)1,100.511,132.101,164.29
Year 4 PV (M)1,253.761,301.981,351.57
Year 5 PV (M)1,405.451,473.331,543.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)49,110.2651,482.3053,945.13
Equity Value (M)54,604.9757,150.2059,790.96
Shares Outstanding (M)252.83252.83252.83
Fair Value$215.97$226.04$236.49
Upside / Downside-30.27%-27.02%-23.65%

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