Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Cincinnati Financial Corporation (0HYE.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$477.60 - $2,659.73$914.29
Multi-Stage$325.48 - $356.47$340.69
Blended Fair Value$627.49
Current Price$158.10
Upside296.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.66%5.83%3.112.882.692.512.382.262.132.541.942.32
YoY Growth--7.93%7.33%7.09%5.33%5.63%5.65%-16.00%30.72%-16.39%31.65%
Dividend Yield--2.11%2.36%2.40%1.85%2.31%2.99%2.47%3.42%2.69%3.56%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,122.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)517.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,605.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)424.40265.25159.15
Cash Retained (M)1,605.001,605.001,605.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-424.40-265.25-159.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,180.601,339.751,445.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)157.43157.43157.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share7.508.519.18
LTM Dividend per Share3.283.283.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share7.508.519.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.7811.7912.47
WACC / Discount Rate7.02%7.02%7.02%
Growth Rate4.66%5.66%6.66%
Fair Value$477.60$914.29$2,659.73
Upside / Downside202.09%478.30%1,582.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,122.002,242.062,368.922,502.952,644.572,794.202,878.03
Payout Ratio24.36%37.49%50.62%63.75%76.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)517.00840.571,199.111,595.522,032.962,514.782,662.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.02%7.02%7.02%
Growth Rate4.66%5.66%6.66%
Year 1 PV (M)777.99785.43792.86
Year 2 PV (M)1,027.211,046.931,066.85
Year 3 PV (M)1,265.041,301.651,338.96
Year 4 PV (M)1,491.871,549.711,609.22
Year 5 PV (M)1,708.071,791.241,877.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)44,967.9047,157.6849,431.94
Equity Value (M)51,238.0953,632.6556,117.46
Shares Outstanding (M)157.43157.43157.43
Fair Value$325.48$340.69$356.47
Upside / Downside105.87%115.49%125.47%

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