DDM Analysis: 0HCB.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$27.89 - $39.31	$33.55
Multi-Stage	$43.83 - $48.22	$45.99
Blended Fair Value	$39.77
Current Price	$32.28
Upside	23.19%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	-5.76%	0.34	0.28	0.28	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	23.61%	0.00%	278.95%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.18%	0.79%	0.65%	0.08%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,146.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	104.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,042.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	229.20	143.25	85.95
Cash Retained (M)	1,042.00	1,042.00	1,042.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-229.20	-143.25	-85.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)	812.80	898.75	956.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	259.92	259.92	259.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share	3.13	3.46	3.68
LTM Dividend per Share	0.40	0.40	0.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share	3.13	3.46	3.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend	3.53	3.86	4.08
WACC / Discount Rate	9.54%	9.54%	9.54%
Growth Rate	-2.76%	-1.76%	-0.76%
Fair Value	$27.89	$33.55	$39.31
Upside / Downside	-13.59%	3.93%	21.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,146.00	1,125.86	1,106.07	1,086.62	1,067.52	1,048.76	1,080.22
Payout Ratio	9.08%	25.26%	41.45%	57.63%	73.82%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	104.00	284.39	458.41	626.22	787.99	943.88	999.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.54%	9.54%	9.54%
Growth Rate	-2.76%	-1.76%	-0.76%
Year 1 PV (M)	256.98	259.62	262.27
Year 2 PV (M)	374.30	382.04	389.86
Year 3 PV (M)	462.05	476.45	491.15
Year 4 PV (M)	525.37	547.32	569.94
Year 5 PV (M)	568.65	598.50	629.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)	9,205.41	9,688.57	10,191.80
Equity Value (M)	11,392.77	11,952.50	12,534.61
Shares Outstanding (M)	259.92	259.92	259.92
Fair Value	$43.83	$45.99	$48.22
Upside / Downside	35.79%	42.46%	49.40%

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Alcoa Corporation (0HCB.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener