Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Savencia S.A. (0DTK.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$447.33 - $2,163.82$794.42
Multi-Stage$398.40 - $436.99$417.34
Blended Fair Value$605.88
Current Price$64.40
Upside840.80%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.76%4.59%1.641.311.531.540.101.031.461.661.040.84
YoY Growth--25.41%-14.58%-0.30%1,493.80%-90.64%-29.30%-12.28%59.38%24.27%-19.96%
Dividend Yield--3.10%2.38%2.62%2.51%0.16%1.68%2.61%2.09%1.56%1.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)190.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)151.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)38.1623.8514.31
Cash Retained (M)151.14151.14151.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-38.16-23.85-14.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)112.98127.29136.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13.3813.3813.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share8.449.5110.22
LTM Dividend per Share2.962.962.96
(+) Excess Retained per Share8.449.5110.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend11.4112.4813.19
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate3.70%4.70%5.70%
Fair Value$447.33$794.42$2,163.82
Upside / Downside594.61%1,133.57%3,259.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)190.79199.77209.17219.01229.31240.10247.30
Payout Ratio20.78%34.63%48.47%62.31%76.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.6669.18101.38136.47174.64216.09228.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate3.70%4.70%5.70%
Year 1 PV (M)64.4265.0565.67
Year 2 PV (M)87.9489.6491.36
Year 3 PV (M)110.24113.46116.74
Year 4 PV (M)131.38136.52141.81
Year 5 PV (M)151.40158.84166.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,785.975,021.225,265.62
Equity Value (M)5,331.365,584.735,847.78
Shares Outstanding (M)13.3813.3813.38
Fair Value$398.40$417.34$436.99
Upside / Downside518.64%548.04%578.56%

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