DDM Analysis: 0A0C.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$12.32 - $18.25	$15.15
Multi-Stage	$22.44 - $24.60	$23.50
Blended Fair Value	$19.33
Current Price	$19.55
Upside	-1.15%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	5.31%	0.00%	0.89	0.89	0.89	0.85	1.19	0.69	0.69	0.58	0.19	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-0.03%	0.00%	5.85%	-29.17%	72.80%	-0.40%	19.53%	201.44%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.50%	2.96%	2.73%	2.12%	2.95%	1.43%	1.16%	0.97%	0.32%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	154.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	109.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)	44.32

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	30.85	19.28	11.57
Cash Retained (M)	44.32	44.32	44.32
(-) Cash Required (M)	-30.85	-19.28	-11.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)	13.47	25.04	32.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	100.51	100.51	100.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.13	0.25	0.33
LTM Dividend per Share	1.09	1.09	1.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.13	0.25	0.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.23	1.34	1.42
WACC / Discount Rate	8.14%	8.14%	8.14%
Growth Rate	-1.66%	-0.66%	0.34%
Fair Value	$12.32	$15.15	$18.25
Upside / Downside	-37.01%	-22.49%	-6.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	154.23	153.21	152.20	151.20	150.20	149.21	153.68
Payout Ratio	71.26%	75.01%	78.76%	82.51%	86.25%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	109.91	114.92	119.87	124.74	129.55	134.29	142.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.14%	8.14%	8.14%
Growth Rate	-1.66%	-0.66%	0.34%
Year 1 PV (M)	105.20	106.27	107.34
Year 2 PV (M)	100.44	102.50	104.57
Year 3 PV (M)	95.68	98.63	101.64
Year 4 PV (M)	90.96	94.72	98.59
Year 5 PV (M)	86.31	90.79	95.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,776.60	1,868.79	1,964.76
Equity Value (M)	2,255.21	2,361.70	2,472.36
Shares Outstanding (M)	100.51	100.51	100.51
Fair Value	$22.44	$23.50	$24.60
Upside / Downside	14.78%	20.20%	25.83%

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Stadler Rail AG (0A0C.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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