Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Communications Services Corporation Limited (0552.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.81 - $62.28$36.26
Multi-Stage$26.30 - $28.83$27.54
Blended Fair Value$31.90
Current Price$3.88
Upside722.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.23%4.80%0.220.200.180.160.160.150.150.140.120.10
YoY Growth--7.15%11.74%11.22%2.02%4.34%4.85%7.97%14.27%14.65%-23.98%
Dividend Yield--5.08%6.90%7.21%5.28%5.56%3.02%2.57%3.11%2.68%4.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,285.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,910.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,374.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,457.10910.69546.41
Cash Retained (M)4,374.544,374.544,374.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,457.10-910.69-546.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,917.443,463.863,828.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,926.026,926.026,926.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.420.500.55
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.420.500.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.840.920.97
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate3.02%4.02%5.02%
Fair Value$23.81$36.26$62.28
Upside / Downside513.73%834.44%1,505.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,285.517,578.447,883.158,200.118,529.818,872.779,138.96
Payout Ratio39.96%49.96%59.97%69.98%79.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,910.973,786.534,727.795,738.626,823.097,985.508,453.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate3.02%4.02%5.02%
Year 1 PV (M)3,515.913,550.043,584.17
Year 2 PV (M)4,076.174,155.694,235.98
Year 3 PV (M)4,594.094,729.174,866.88
Year 4 PV (M)5,071.905,271.715,477.37
Year 5 PV (M)5,511.745,784.496,067.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)159,358.45167,244.36175,439.41
Equity Value (M)182,128.27190,735.47199,671.74
Shares Outstanding (M)6,926.026,926.026,926.02
Fair Value$26.30$27.54$28.83
Upside / Downside577.74%609.77%643.02%

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