Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tradelink Electronic Commerce Limited (0536.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.67 - $2.41$2.03
Multi-Stage$2.86 - $3.13$2.99
Blended Fair Value$2.51
Current Price$0.94
Upside166.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.46%0.23%0.100.110.080.100.080.090.100.090.100.12
YoY Growth---10.07%34.30%-17.61%18.94%-9.14%-5.10%3.16%-8.63%-14.70%24.72%
Dividend Yield--10.87%12.64%9.41%8.66%8.89%8.09%8.45%7.09%6.50%6.81%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)185.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)159.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)37.1123.1913.91
Cash Retained (M)25.8125.8125.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-37.11-23.19-13.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)-11.302.6211.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)794.63794.63794.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.200.22
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate-1.77%-0.77%0.23%
Fair Value$1.67$2.03$2.41
Upside / Downside77.45%115.66%155.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)185.53184.10182.68181.28179.88178.49183.85
Payout Ratio86.09%86.87%87.65%88.44%89.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)159.72159.93160.13160.31160.48160.64170.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate-1.77%-0.77%0.23%
Year 1 PV (M)144.94146.42147.89
Year 2 PV (M)131.52134.21136.93
Year 3 PV (M)119.33123.01126.77
Year 4 PV (M)108.26112.74117.35
Year 5 PV (M)98.21103.32108.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,669.021,755.731,846.00
Equity Value (M)2,271.292,375.422,483.57
Shares Outstanding (M)794.63794.63794.63
Fair Value$2.86$2.99$3.13
Upside / Downside204.07%218.01%232.49%

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