Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Yip's Chemical Holdings Limited (0408.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.47 - $1.93$1.71
Multi-Stage$4.91 - $5.46$5.18
Blended Fair Value$3.44
Current Price$1.60
Upside115.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.12%-6.26%0.130.070.280.240.190.170.160.150.090.25
YoY Growth--85.27%-75.00%15.19%29.10%11.62%6.27%6.67%57.91%-61.96%0.10%
Dividend Yield--8.76%4.64%8.84%5.57%6.40%7.23%6.89%5.41%3.04%9.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)233.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)113.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)119.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)46.6729.1717.50
Cash Retained (M)119.83119.83119.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-46.67-29.17-17.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)73.1690.66102.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)564.60564.60564.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.160.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.160.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.360.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-13.10%-12.10%-11.10%
Fair Value$1.47$1.71$1.93
Upside / Downside-8.31%6.90%20.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)233.36205.12180.30158.49139.31122.46126.13
Payout Ratio48.65%56.92%65.19%73.46%81.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)113.53116.75117.54116.42113.86110.21116.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-13.10%-12.10%-11.10%
Year 1 PV (M)108.39109.64110.89
Year 2 PV (M)101.31103.66106.03
Year 3 PV (M)93.1796.4299.75
Year 4 PV (M)84.5988.5592.65
Year 5 PV (M)76.0280.4985.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,308.382,444.292,586.53
Equity Value (M)2,771.862,923.053,081.02
Shares Outstanding (M)564.60564.60564.60
Fair Value$4.91$5.18$5.46
Upside / Downside206.84%223.58%241.07%

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