DDM Analysis: 0384.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$37.52 - $215.52	$70.27
Multi-Stage	$32.79 - $35.88	$34.31
Blended Fair Value	$52.29
Current Price	$7.62
Upside	586.20%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	1.90%	15.85%	0.49	0.55	0.55	0.57	0.48	0.44	0.33	0.26	0.18	0.17
YoY Growth	-	-	-11.82%	-0.02%	-2.29%	17.40%	8.67%	35.11%	27.72%	45.85%	1.24%	55.58%
Dividend Yield	-	-	6.89%	7.91%	5.01%	5.65%	1.52%	1.65%	1.18%	0.90%	1.41%	1.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	5,940.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	5,629.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)	311.12

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,188.07	742.54	445.53
Cash Retained (M)	311.12	311.12	311.12
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,188.07	-742.54	-445.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-876.95	-431.42	-134.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	5,399.43	5,399.43	5,399.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.16	-0.08	-0.02
LTM Dividend per Share	1.04	1.04	1.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.16	-0.08	-0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.88	0.96	1.02
WACC / Discount Rate	6.33%	6.33%	6.33%
Growth Rate	3.89%	4.89%	5.89%
Fair Value	$37.52	$70.27	$215.52
Upside / Downside	392.41%	822.18%	2,728.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	5,940.36	6,230.73	6,535.30	6,854.75	7,189.82	7,541.27	7,767.51
Payout Ratio	94.76%	93.81%	92.86%	91.91%	90.95%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	5,629.24	5,845.05	6,068.52	6,299.86	6,539.32	6,787.14	7,184.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.33%	6.33%	6.33%
Growth Rate	3.89%	4.89%	5.89%
Year 1 PV (M)	5,444.93	5,497.34	5,549.75
Year 2 PV (M)	5,266.12	5,367.99	5,470.83
Year 3 PV (M)	5,092.64	5,241.12	5,392.46
Year 4 PV (M)	4,924.35	5,116.71	5,314.65
Year 5 PV (M)	4,761.10	4,994.70	5,237.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)	151,581.34	159,018.55	166,744.87
Equity Value (M)	177,070.47	185,236.41	193,709.94
Shares Outstanding (M)	5,399.43	5,399.43	5,399.43
Fair Value	$32.79	$34.31	$35.88
Upside / Downside	330.37%	350.22%	370.81%

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Financial Statements

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Sector

China Gas Holdings Limited (0384.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener