DDM Analysis: 0363.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$54.32 - $85.93	$68.76
Multi-Stage	$119.61 - $131.69	$125.53
Blended Fair Value	$97.14
Current Price	$13.56
Upside	616.40%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	12.57%	0.48%	0.94	0.92	0.96	1.00	0.74	0.52	0.96	0.99	0.96	1.05
YoY Growth	-	-	2.17%	-4.17%	-4.00%	35.14%	42.31%	-45.83%	-2.81%	3.11%	-9.10%	17.58%
Dividend Yield	-	-	7.94%	9.49%	9.95%	8.80%	6.98%	3.47%	6.06%	4.37%	4.56%	5.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	5,897.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,064.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)	3,833.16

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,179.49	737.18	442.31
Cash Retained (M)	3,833.16	3,833.16	3,833.16
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,179.49	-737.18	-442.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)	2,653.67	3,095.98	3,390.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,087.21	1,087.21	1,087.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.44	2.85	3.12
LTM Dividend per Share	1.90	1.90	1.90
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.44	2.85	3.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend	4.34	4.75	5.02
WACC / Discount Rate	6.34%	6.34%	6.34%
Growth Rate	-1.52%	-0.52%	0.48%
Fair Value	$54.32	$68.76	$85.93
Upside / Downside	300.60%	407.06%	533.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	5,897.45	5,866.60	5,835.92	5,805.40	5,775.04	5,744.83	5,917.18
Payout Ratio	35.00%	46.00%	57.00%	68.00%	79.00%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,064.29	2,698.78	3,326.58	3,947.74	4,562.31	5,170.35	5,473.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.34%	6.34%	6.34%
Growth Rate	-1.52%	-0.52%	0.48%
Year 1 PV (M)	2,512.27	2,537.79	2,563.30
Year 2 PV (M)	2,882.68	2,941.53	3,000.96
Year 3 PV (M)	3,184.54	3,282.54	3,382.54
Year 4 PV (M)	3,425.97	3,567.26	3,712.87
Year 5 PV (M)	3,614.24	3,801.51	3,996.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)	114,418.63	120,347.23	126,519.07
Equity Value (M)	130,038.34	136,477.86	143,175.22
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,087.21	1,087.21	1,087.21
Fair Value	$119.61	$125.53	$131.69
Upside / Downside	782.06%	825.74%	871.17%

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Financial Statements

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Sector

Shanghai Industrial Holdings Limited (0363.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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