Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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BGF Co., Ltd. (027410.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$97,498.62 - $114,969.43$107,696.99
Multi-Stage$965,795.20 - $1,065,205.29$1,014,525.77
Blended Fair Value$561,111.38
Current Price$3,930.00
Upside14,177.64%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS30.72%2.80%133.42110.20123.73110.20110.2034.9567.53414.90317.03193.49
YoY Growth--21.07%-10.94%12.28%-0.01%215.33%-48.24%-83.72%30.87%63.85%91.24%
Dividend Yield--3.92%2.90%2.85%2.07%1.57%0.95%0.83%3.17%0.30%0.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)57,751.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14,604.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)43,147.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11,550.387,218.994,331.39
Cash Retained (M)43,147.3543,147.3543,147.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-11,550.38-7,218.99-4,331.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)31,596.9735,928.3638,815.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)95.5495.5495.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share330.73376.07406.29
LTM Dividend per Share152.87152.87152.87
(+) Excess Retained per Share330.73376.07406.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend483.60528.94559.16
WACC / Discount Rate-42.44%-42.44%-42.44%
Growth Rate0.80%1.80%2.80%
Fair Value$97,498.62$107,696.99$114,969.43
Upside / Downside2,380.88%2,640.38%2,825.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)57,751.9158,794.2559,855.4060,935.7162,035.5163,155.1665,049.82
Payout Ratio25.29%38.23%51.17%64.12%77.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14,604.5622,477.4830,629.8439,069.1647,803.1356,839.6560,171.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-42.44%-42.44%-42.44%
Growth Rate0.80%1.80%2.80%
Year 1 PV (M)38,668.5939,052.1939,435.79
Year 2 PV (M)90,649.6492,457.0894,282.36
Year 3 PV (M)198,914.32204,893.02210,990.34
Year 4 PV (M)418,696.18435,559.16452,926.46
Year 5 PV (M)856,455.30899,787.39944,855.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)90,665,309.3895,252,492.59100,023,494.76
Equity Value (M)92,268,693.4196,924,241.44101,765,985.61
Shares Outstanding (M)95.5495.5495.54
Fair Value$965,795.20$1,014,525.77$1,065,205.29
Upside / Downside24,474.94%25,714.91%27,004.46%

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