Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Safety Godown Company, Limited (0237.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.79 - $9.81$5.75
Multi-Stage$4.36 - $4.78$4.57
Blended Fair Value$5.16
Current Price$1.95
Upside164.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-26.77%4.95%0.080.050.080.520.120.360.190.441.430.06
YoY Growth--37.79%-31.06%-84.65%333.15%-66.67%92.77%-58.01%-69.04%2,429.41%21.43%
Dividend Yield--3.88%2.80%3.62%16.52%3.52%10.47%3.99%7.61%22.93%0.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)68.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)48.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)19.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.728.575.14
Cash Retained (M)19.8419.8419.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.72-8.57-5.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.1211.2714.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)405.00405.00405.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate6.62%6.62%6.62%
Growth Rate2.95%3.95%4.95%
Fair Value$3.79$5.75$9.81
Upside / Downside94.54%195.12%402.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)68.5871.2974.1077.0280.0683.2285.72
Payout Ratio71.07%74.86%78.64%82.43%86.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)48.7453.3758.2863.4969.0374.9079.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.62%6.62%6.62%
Growth Rate2.95%3.95%4.95%
Year 1 PV (M)49.5750.0550.53
Year 2 PV (M)50.2851.2652.25
Year 3 PV (M)50.8852.3853.91
Year 4 PV (M)51.3953.4155.50
Year 5 PV (M)51.7954.3657.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,513.781,588.741,666.65
Equity Value (M)1,767.691,850.211,935.86
Shares Outstanding (M)405.00405.00405.00
Fair Value$4.36$4.57$4.78
Upside / Downside123.83%134.28%145.12%

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