Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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S-1 Corporation (012750.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Security & Protection ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$61,213.48 - $102,347.91$79,300.12
Multi-Stage$66,574.09 - $72,690.53$69,576.36
Blended Fair Value$74,438.24
Current Price$84,100.00
Upside-11.49%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.55%9.40%2,541.872,354.012,354.012,354.012,354.012,354.012,354.011,177.011,129.931,082.85
YoY Growth--7.98%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%100.00%4.17%4.35%4.58%
Dividend Yield--3.95%3.90%4.26%3.30%2.88%2.94%2.36%1.19%1.26%1.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)180,788.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)91,311.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)89,477.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36,157.6922,598.5613,559.13
Cash Retained (M)89,477.0589,477.0589,477.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-36,157.69-22,598.56-13,559.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)53,319.3666,878.5075,917.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)35.9135.9135.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share1,484.931,862.552,114.29
LTM Dividend per Share2,543.002,543.002,543.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share1,484.931,862.552,114.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend4,027.934,405.544,657.29
WACC / Discount Rate9.80%9.80%9.80%
Growth Rate3.02%4.02%5.02%
Fair Value$61,213.48$79,300.12$102,347.91
Upside / Downside-27.21%-5.71%21.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)180,788.46188,059.01195,621.96203,489.06211,672.53220,185.12226,790.67
Payout Ratio50.51%58.41%66.30%74.20%82.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)91,311.41109,837.48129,705.95150,994.84173,786.25198,166.61209,781.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.80%9.80%9.80%
Growth Rate3.02%4.02%5.02%
Year 1 PV (M)99,071.98100,033.65100,995.31
Year 2 PV (M)105,526.25107,584.82109,663.27
Year 3 PV (M)110,805.93114,064.03117,385.39
Year 4 PV (M)115,031.46119,563.21124,227.57
Year 5 PV (M)118,312.87124,167.57130,251.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,841,727.281,932,864.992,027,575.47
Equity Value (M)2,390,475.772,498,278.272,610,098.79
Shares Outstanding (M)35.9135.9135.91
Fair Value$66,574.09$69,576.36$72,690.53
Upside / Downside-20.84%-17.27%-13.57%

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