Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sun Hung Kai & Co. Limited (0086.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.79 - $7.27$5.96
Multi-Stage$11.36 - $12.48$11.91
Blended Fair Value$8.93
Current Price$3.40
Upside162.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.39%0.06%0.260.260.300.260.260.270.290.290.290.30
YoY Growth---0.10%-13.59%14.91%-0.54%-0.61%-6.96%-1.29%-1.41%-1.37%14.91%
Dividend Yield--9.58%10.39%10.30%6.32%8.08%7.16%7.72%5.72%6.12%5.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,080.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,018.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)62.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)216.16135.1081.06
Cash Retained (M)62.1062.1062.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-216.16-135.10-81.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)-154.06-73.00-18.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,960.101,960.101,960.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.08-0.04-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.520.520.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.08-0.04-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.440.480.51
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate-2.39%-1.39%-0.39%
Fair Value$4.79$5.96$7.27
Upside / Downside40.90%75.18%113.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,080.801,065.771,050.951,036.331,021.921,007.711,037.94
Payout Ratio94.25%93.40%92.55%91.70%90.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,018.70995.46972.68950.33928.42906.93960.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate-2.39%-1.39%-0.39%
Year 1 PV (M)924.39933.86943.33
Year 2 PV (M)838.74856.01873.46
Year 3 PV (M)760.96784.59808.70
Year 4 PV (M)690.33719.06748.67
Year 5 PV (M)626.21658.95693.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,429.3119,392.8920,396.36
Equity Value (M)22,269.9323,345.3524,463.56
Shares Outstanding (M)1,960.101,960.101,960.10
Fair Value$11.36$11.91$12.48
Upside / Downside234.17%250.30%267.08%

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