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Definitive Analysis

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Meritz Securities Co., Ltd. (008560.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$228,275.06 - $268,946.70$252,042.45
Multi-Stage$46,386.00 - $50,832.91$48,568.33
Blended Fair Value$150,305.39
Current Price$6,130.00
Upside2,351.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS4.11%26.95%190.93411.48252.75238.47435.35156.14171.5872.8934.9243.23
YoY Growth---53.60%62.80%5.99%-45.22%178.82%-9.00%135.40%108.72%-19.22%146.25%
Dividend Yield--3.11%6.29%5.48%8.43%8.39%3.65%4.61%2.04%0.67%2.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)822,095.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)116,069.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)706,025.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)164,419.02102,761.8961,657.13
Cash Retained (M)706,025.84706,025.84706,025.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-164,419.02-102,761.89-61,657.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)541,606.83603,263.96644,368.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)607.91607.91607.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share890.94992.361,059.98
LTM Dividend per Share190.93190.93190.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share890.94992.361,059.98
(=) Adjusted Dividend1,081.871,183.301,250.91
WACC / Discount Rate5.97%5.97%5.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$228,275.06$252,042.45$268,946.70
Upside / Downside3,623.90%4,011.62%4,287.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)822,095.09875,531.27932,440.80993,049.451,057,597.661,126,341.511,160,131.76
Payout Ratio14.12%29.29%44.47%59.65%74.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)116,069.24256,486.62414,667.87592,329.02791,334.151,013,707.361,073,121.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.97%5.97%5.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)239,762.55242,035.18244,307.81
Year 2 PV (M)362,354.48369,256.31376,223.26
Year 3 PV (M)483,852.39497,742.05511,895.02
Year 4 PV (M)604,263.57627,501.84651,404.01
Year 5 PV (M)723,595.28758,545.20794,832.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,784,473.3127,029,873.0228,322,937.10
Equity Value (M)28,198,301.5729,524,953.6030,901,599.93
Shares Outstanding (M)607.91607.91607.91
Fair Value$46,386.00$48,568.33$50,832.91
Upside / Downside656.70%692.31%729.25%

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