Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co., Ltd. (003012.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.94 - $4.47$3.66
Multi-Stage$3.65 - $3.98$3.81
Blended Fair Value$3.74
Current Price$7.18
Upside-47.96%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS83.02%3.88%0.310.120.220.310.030.010.170.001.360.02
YoY Growth--160.63%-46.95%-27.79%1,081.63%74.06%-91.00%15,859.50%-99.92%7,613.74%-91.58%
Dividend Yield--4.90%1.55%2.54%3.04%0.12%0.09%0.00%0.00%8.34%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)368.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)288.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)80.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)73.7746.1127.66
Cash Retained (M)80.7680.7680.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-73.77-46.11-27.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.9934.6653.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,152.801,152.801,152.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.280.30
WACC / Discount Rate10.75%10.75%10.75%
Growth Rate1.88%2.88%3.88%
Fair Value$2.94$3.66$4.47
Upside / Downside-59.06%-49.04%-37.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)368.84379.46390.38401.62413.18425.07437.83
Payout Ratio78.10%80.48%82.86%85.24%87.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)288.08305.40323.48342.35362.03382.57404.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.75%10.75%10.75%
Growth Rate1.88%2.88%3.88%
Year 1 PV (M)273.07275.75278.43
Year 2 PV (M)258.62263.73268.88
Year 3 PV (M)244.74252.01259.44
Year 4 PV (M)231.42240.64250.13
Year 5 PV (M)218.66229.60240.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,986.503,135.983,291.38
Equity Value (M)4,213.014,397.714,589.24
Shares Outstanding (M)1,152.801,152.801,152.80
Fair Value$3.65$3.81$3.98
Upside / Downside-49.10%-46.87%-44.56%

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