Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co., Ltd. (003006.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.81 - $27.29$18.22
Multi-Stage$10.12 - $11.01$10.56
Blended Fair Value$14.39
Current Price$26.39
Upside-45.48%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS39.74%8.96%0.550.300.300.300.000.100.160.000.000.00
YoY Growth--83.41%-0.37%0.60%0.00%-100.00%-36.11%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--2.21%1.79%1.65%2.25%0.00%1.08%1.68%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)293.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)236.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)57.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)58.7436.7122.03
Cash Retained (M)57.4457.4457.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-58.74-36.71-22.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1.3020.7335.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)432.43432.43432.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.050.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.550.550.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.050.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.63
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12.81$18.22$27.29
Upside / Downside-51.45%-30.97%3.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)293.72312.81333.14354.79377.85402.42414.49
Payout Ratio80.44%82.35%84.27%86.18%88.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)236.28257.61280.72305.75332.85362.17383.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)232.05234.25236.45
Year 2 PV (M)227.77232.11236.49
Year 3 PV (M)223.46229.87236.41
Year 4 PV (M)219.12227.55236.22
Year 5 PV (M)214.77225.14235.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,259.703,417.143,580.61
Equity Value (M)4,376.864,566.064,762.09
Shares Outstanding (M)432.43432.43432.43
Fair Value$10.12$10.56$11.01
Upside / Downside-61.65%-59.99%-58.27%

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