Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Bank of Suzhou Co., Ltd. (002966.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$192.34 - $226.60$212.36
Multi-Stage$64.16 - $70.34$67.19
Blended Fair Value$139.78
Current Price$8.16
Upside1,612.94%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.87%17.72%0.650.260.600.520.420.430.400.390.200.13
YoY Growth--153.49%-56.97%14.23%24.45%-1.37%5.56%4.18%89.92%60.05%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.27%3.58%8.58%7.77%6.01%5.57%3.92%3.76%1.98%1.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,365.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,242.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,123.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,073.16670.72402.43
Cash Retained (M)3,123.613,123.613,123.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,073.16-670.72-402.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,050.452,452.892,721.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,709.214,709.214,709.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.440.520.58
LTM Dividend per Share0.480.480.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.440.520.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.911.001.05
WACC / Discount Rate4.86%4.86%4.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$192.34$212.36$226.60
Upside / Downside2,257.05%2,502.46%2,677.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,365.795,714.576,086.026,481.616,902.917,351.607,572.15
Payout Ratio41.79%51.43%61.07%70.71%80.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,242.182,938.963,716.854,583.455,547.006,616.447,004.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.86%4.86%4.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,776.342,802.662,828.98
Year 2 PV (M)3,316.913,380.093,443.86
Year 3 PV (M)3,863.943,974.864,087.88
Year 4 PV (M)4,417.494,587.374,762.11
Year 5 PV (M)4,977.625,218.045,467.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)282,798.58296,457.86310,639.91
Equity Value (M)302,150.88316,420.87331,230.40
Shares Outstanding (M)4,709.214,709.214,709.21
Fair Value$64.16$67.19$70.34
Upside / Downside686.30%723.43%761.97%

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