DDM Analysis: 002949.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$11.31 - $35.53	$18.16
Multi-Stage	$7.87 - $8.57	$8.22
Blended Fair Value	$13.19
Current Price	$15.80
Upside	-16.53%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	23.15%	86.34%	0.83	0.32	0.32	0.41	0.21	0.29	0.15	0.36	0.15	0.02
YoY Growth	-	-	158.38%	0.57%	-21.94%	93.78%	-27.94%	96.46%	-58.88%	150.63%	640.02%	1,089.71%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.10%	2.65%	2.19%	2.67%	1.03%	1.72%	0.51%	2.41%	0.96%	0.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	84.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	68.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)	15.41

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	16.81	10.50	6.30
Cash Retained (M)	15.41	15.41	15.41
(-) Cash Required (M)	-16.81	-10.50	-6.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-1.39	4.91	9.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	196.04	196.04	196.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.01	0.03	0.05
LTM Dividend per Share	0.35	0.35	0.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.01	0.03	0.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.34	0.38	0.40
WACC / Discount Rate	8.70%	8.70%	8.70%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$11.31	$18.16	$35.53
Upside / Downside	-28.44%	14.94%	124.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	84.03	89.49	95.31	101.50	108.10	115.12	118.58
Payout Ratio	81.66%	83.33%	85.00%	86.66%	88.33%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	68.61	74.57	81.00	87.96	95.48	103.61	109.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.70%	8.70%	8.70%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	67.96	68.60	69.24
Year 2 PV (M)	67.28	68.56	69.85
Year 3 PV (M)	66.58	68.49	70.44
Year 4 PV (M)	65.86	68.39	71.00
Year 5 PV (M)	65.13	68.28	71.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,209.75	1,268.18	1,328.84
Equity Value (M)	1,542.55	1,610.50	1,680.92
Shares Outstanding (M)	196.04	196.04	196.04
Fair Value	$7.87	$8.22	$8.57
Upside / Downside	-50.20%	-48.01%	-45.73%

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Shenzhen Capol International & Associatesco., Ltd (002949.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener