DDM Analysis: 002749.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$137.50 - $162.00	$151.82
Multi-Stage	$350.70 - $384.97	$367.51
Blended Fair Value	$259.67
Current Price	$14.99
Upside	1,632.27%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	49.59%	22.41%	0.82	0.20	0.21	0.21	0.20	0.11	0.33	0.49	0.16	0.13
YoY Growth	-	-	317.30%	-7.77%	0.75%	4.03%	85.67%	-66.37%	-33.33%	200.00%	25.00%	20.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.40%	1.30%	2.38%	2.29%	1.83%	1.12%	2.64%	4.07%	0.99%	0.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	375.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	282.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)	92.46

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	75.06	46.91	28.15
Cash Retained (M)	92.46	92.46	92.46
(-) Cash Required (M)	-75.06	-46.91	-28.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)	17.40	45.55	64.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	460.70	460.70	460.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.10	0.14
LTM Dividend per Share	0.61	0.61	0.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.10	0.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.65	0.71	0.75
WACC / Discount Rate	-21.55%	-21.55%	-21.55%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$137.50	$151.82	$162.00
Upside / Downside	817.30%	912.81%	980.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	375.29	399.68	425.66	453.33	482.80	514.18	529.60
Payout Ratio	75.36%	78.29%	81.22%	84.14%	87.07%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	282.83	312.91	345.71	381.45	420.38	462.76	489.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	-21.55%	-21.55%	-21.55%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	395.14	398.88	402.63
Year 2 PV (M)	551.27	561.77	572.37
Year 3 PV (M)	768.11	790.16	812.63
Year 4 PV (M)	1,068.94	1,110.04	1,152.33
Year 5 PV (M)	1,485.90	1,557.67	1,632.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)	157,299.05	164,896.65	172,785.03
Equity Value (M)	161,568.40	169,315.18	177,357.17
Shares Outstanding (M)	460.70	460.70	460.70
Fair Value	$350.70	$367.51	$384.97
Upside / Downside	2,239.55%	2,351.72%	2,468.17%

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Financial Statements

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Sichuan Guoguang Agrochemical Co., Ltd. (002749.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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