Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Guangdong Vanward New Electric Co., Ltd. (002543.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$153.67 - $181.08$169.69
Multi-Stage$55.54 - $60.95$58.19
Blended Fair Value$113.94
Current Price$12.11
Upside840.86%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.17%10.87%0.640.400.330.330.330.330.300.430.440.11
YoY Growth--60.38%21.21%0.00%0.00%-0.23%11.80%-31.51%-2.67%316.67%-53.41%
Dividend Yield--5.59%4.12%3.68%4.63%4.09%4.21%2.50%3.41%3.64%1.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)682.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)337.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)345.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)136.5885.3651.22
Cash Retained (M)345.51345.51345.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-136.58-85.36-51.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)208.93260.15294.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)741.76741.76741.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.280.350.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.450.450.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.280.350.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.740.810.85
WACC / Discount Rate4.65%4.65%4.65%
Growth Rate4.32%5.32%6.32%
Fair Value$153.67$169.69$181.08
Upside / Downside1,168.93%1,301.20%1,395.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)682.90719.24757.50797.81840.26884.97911.51
Payout Ratio49.41%57.52%65.64%73.76%81.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)337.39413.73497.25588.48688.01796.47843.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.65%4.65%4.65%
Growth Rate4.32%5.32%6.32%
Year 1 PV (M)391.58395.33399.09
Year 2 PV (M)445.42454.00462.66
Year 3 PV (M)498.92513.40528.17
Year 4 PV (M)552.07573.54595.64
Year 5 PV (M)604.87634.43665.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)38,702.9240,593.8342,557.92
Equity Value (M)41,195.7843,164.5345,208.60
Shares Outstanding (M)741.76741.76741.76
Fair Value$55.54$58.19$60.95
Upside / Downside358.61%380.53%403.28%

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