Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (002422.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.79 - $60.65$35.93
Multi-Stage$17.52 - $19.08$18.29
Blended Fair Value$27.11
Current Price$36.73
Upside-26.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS43.27%13.66%1.140.710.380.280.380.190.620.410.450.39
YoY Growth--60.78%88.48%32.83%-25.26%100.69%-69.50%52.06%-9.65%15.13%23.61%
Dividend Yield--3.54%2.33%1.32%1.63%1.72%0.91%2.10%1.28%2.83%2.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,665.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,293.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)371.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)333.13208.20124.92
Cash Retained (M)371.99371.99371.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-333.13-208.20-124.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)38.86163.78247.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,589.431,589.431,589.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.100.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.810.810.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.100.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.840.920.97
WACC / Discount Rate9.22%9.22%9.22%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23.79$35.93$60.65
Upside / Downside-35.24%-2.18%65.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,665.631,773.901,889.202,012.002,142.782,282.062,350.52
Payout Ratio77.67%80.13%82.60%85.07%87.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,293.641,421.491,560.481,711.541,875.652,053.852,174.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.22%9.22%9.22%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,289.291,301.511,313.73
Year 2 PV (M)1,283.731,308.191,332.87
Year 3 PV (M)1,277.061,313.721,351.08
Year 4 PV (M)1,269.361,318.171,368.38
Year 5 PV (M)1,260.701,321.591,384.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,462.9722,499.6423,575.99
Equity Value (M)27,843.1129,062.8230,326.86
Shares Outstanding (M)1,589.431,589.431,589.43
Fair Value$17.52$18.29$19.08
Upside / Downside-52.31%-50.22%-48.05%

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