Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Tianrun Industry Technology Co., Ltd. (002283.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.32 - $14.57$9.24
Multi-Stage$4.76 - $5.18$4.97
Blended Fair Value$7.10
Current Price$6.63
Upside7.13%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS32.15%16.69%0.230.060.100.060.050.060.080.050.050.05
YoY Growth--296.01%-41.48%74.42%21.45%-17.90%-25.95%55.04%5.80%-2.47%-1.97%
Dividend Yield--3.44%1.05%1.74%0.80%0.71%1.68%1.74%0.99%0.66%1.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)343.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)224.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)119.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)68.7742.9825.79
Cash Retained (M)119.04119.04119.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-68.77-42.98-25.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)50.2776.0693.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,120.831,120.831,120.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.28
WACC / Discount Rate9.59%9.59%9.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6.32$9.24$14.57
Upside / Downside-4.61%39.36%119.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)343.85366.20390.00415.35442.35471.10485.23
Payout Ratio65.38%70.30%75.23%80.15%85.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)224.81257.45293.39332.91376.33423.99448.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.59%9.59%9.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)232.71234.91237.12
Year 2 PV (M)239.70244.27248.88
Year 3 PV (M)245.85252.91260.10
Year 4 PV (M)251.21260.87270.81
Year 5 PV (M)255.82268.18281.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,106.974,305.344,511.30
Equity Value (M)5,332.265,566.485,809.21
Shares Outstanding (M)1,120.831,120.831,120.83
Fair Value$4.76$4.97$5.18
Upside / Downside-28.24%-25.09%-21.83%

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