Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Yuyue Medical Equipment & Supply Co., Ltd. (002223.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.79 - $69.64$46.58
Multi-Stage$24.85 - $27.09$25.95
Blended Fair Value$36.26
Current Price$39.01
Upside-7.04%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS50.37%36.85%1.230.660.350.320.420.160.160.270.240.01
YoY Growth--85.36%88.30%10.02%-23.20%160.68%2.21%-42.68%13.05%2,228.46%-80.58%
Dividend Yield--3.52%1.94%1.11%1.15%1.59%0.44%0.59%1.11%1.13%0.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,740.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)807.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)932.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)348.03217.52130.51
Cash Retained (M)932.38932.38932.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-348.03-217.52-130.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)584.35714.86801.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)996.92996.92996.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.590.720.80
LTM Dividend per Share0.810.810.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.590.720.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.401.531.61
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$32.79$46.58$69.64
Upside / Downside-15.93%19.40%78.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,740.151,853.261,973.722,102.012,238.652,384.162,455.68
Payout Ratio46.42%55.14%63.85%72.57%81.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)807.771,021.811,260.261,525.391,819.662,145.742,271.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)920.26928.98937.70
Year 2 PV (M)1,022.211,041.681,061.33
Year 3 PV (M)1,114.301,146.291,178.88
Year 4 PV (M)1,197.161,243.201,290.56
Year 5 PV (M)1,271.401,332.801,396.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,248.5820,178.2921,143.59
Equity Value (M)24,773.9125,871.2527,008.63
Shares Outstanding (M)996.92996.92996.92
Fair Value$24.85$25.95$27.09
Upside / Downside-36.30%-33.48%-30.55%

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