Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shenzhen Noposion Agrochemicals Co.,Ltd (002215.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$53.91 - $134.55$126.09
Multi-Stage$19.80 - $21.65$20.71
Blended Fair Value$73.40
Current Price$12.91
Upside468.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS35.77%7.10%0.220.150.200.090.140.050.140.010.090.07
YoY Growth--44.22%-24.60%117.38%-32.50%189.15%-65.98%926.13%-85.53%31.32%-35.08%
Dividend Yield--2.41%1.75%2.69%1.39%2.45%0.78%2.06%0.17%0.87%0.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)672.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)411.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)261.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)134.5084.0650.44
Cash Retained (M)261.05261.05261.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-134.50-84.06-50.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)126.55176.99210.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)994.04994.04994.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.180.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.180.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.63
WACC / Discount Rate6.56%6.56%6.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$53.91$126.09$134.55
Upside / Downside317.61%876.68%942.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)672.51716.22762.77812.36865.16921.39949.04
Payout Ratio61.18%66.95%72.71%78.47%84.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)411.45479.48554.61637.48728.78829.25877.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.56%6.56%6.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)445.74449.97454.19
Year 2 PV (M)479.30488.43497.65
Year 3 PV (M)512.16526.86541.84
Year 4 PV (M)544.31565.24586.77
Year 5 PV (M)575.77603.58632.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,125.5317,952.7018,811.53
Equity Value (M)19,682.8120,586.7821,524.43
Shares Outstanding (M)994.04994.04994.04
Fair Value$19.80$20.71$21.65
Upside / Downside53.38%60.42%67.73%

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