Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shaanxi Energy Investment (001286.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.13 - $13.04$10.35
Multi-Stage$22.52 - $24.80$23.64
Blended Fair Value$16.99
Current Price$8.94
Upside90.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%0.410.350.110.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--17.14%228.13%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.46%3.58%0.76%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,928.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,876.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,051.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)585.62366.01219.61
Cash Retained (M)1,051.601,051.601,051.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-585.62-366.01-219.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)465.98685.59831.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,725.103,725.103,725.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.180.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.180.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.690.73
WACC / Discount Rate5.58%5.58%5.58%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$8.13$10.35$13.04
Upside / Downside-9.03%15.80%45.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,928.112,898.832,869.842,841.152,812.732,784.612,868.14
Payout Ratio64.09%69.27%74.45%79.63%84.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,876.512,007.992,136.642,262.532,385.682,506.152,653.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.58%5.58%5.58%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,882.701,901.911,921.12
Year 2 PV (M)1,878.341,916.871,955.79
Year 3 PV (M)1,864.901,922.581,981.43
Year 4 PV (M)1,843.721,920.141,998.90
Year 5 PV (M)1,815.981,910.542,009.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)74,592.7878,477.0082,521.37
Equity Value (M)83,878.4288,049.0392,387.60
Shares Outstanding (M)3,725.103,725.103,725.10
Fair Value$22.52$23.64$24.80
Upside / Downside151.87%164.39%177.42%

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