Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Hang Seng Bank Limited (0011.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$147.18 - $223.02$182.86
Multi-Stage$314.29 - $345.08$329.39
Blended Fair Value$256.12
Current Price$117.60
Upside117.79%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.83%2.08%6.825.343.936.156.767.877.066.458.775.65
YoY Growth--27.53%35.92%-36.07%-8.95%-14.12%11.45%9.37%-26.44%55.36%1.82%
Dividend Yield--7.13%5.87%3.03%4.31%5.05%4.89%4.02%3.33%6.08%3.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)32,155.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26,194.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,961.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,431.004,019.382,411.63
Cash Retained (M)5,961.005,961.005,961.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,431.00-4,019.38-2,411.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)-470.001,941.633,549.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,895.801,895.801,895.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.251.021.87
LTM Dividend per Share13.8213.8213.82
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.251.021.87
(=) Adjusted Dividend13.5714.8415.69
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$147.18$182.86$223.02
Upside / Downside25.15%55.49%89.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)32,155.0031,833.4531,515.1231,199.9630,887.9630,579.0931,496.46
Payout Ratio81.46%83.17%84.88%86.58%88.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26,194.0026,475.6726,749.0927,014.3927,271.7027,521.1829,134.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)24,485.6924,735.5424,985.40
Year 2 PV (M)22,879.1423,348.4423,822.51
Year 3 PV (M)21,369.3422,030.2022,704.55
Year 4 PV (M)19,951.4220,778.3121,630.64
Year 5 PV (M)18,620.6019,590.2220,599.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)488,533.45513,972.52540,460.46
Equity Value (M)595,839.64624,455.24654,203.38
Shares Outstanding (M)1,895.801,895.801,895.80
Fair Value$314.29$329.39$345.08
Upside / Downside167.26%180.09%193.44%

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