Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Hang Lung Group Limited (0010.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.74 - $60.13$44.86
Multi-Stage$113.87 - $125.58$119.61
Blended Fair Value$82.24
Current Price$13.66
Upside502.02%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.46%0.77%0.860.860.860.841.080.800.800.800.800.81
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%2.36%-22.18%34.99%0.00%0.00%0.37%-1.18%1.29%
Dividend Yield--8.22%8.08%6.00%5.04%5.60%4.15%4.01%2.78%2.95%3.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,439.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,457.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,982.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)687.80429.88257.93
Cash Retained (M)1,982.001,982.001,982.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-687.80-429.88-257.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,294.201,552.131,724.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,361.621,361.621,361.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.951.141.27
LTM Dividend per Share1.071.071.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.951.141.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.022.212.34
WACC / Discount Rate4.69%4.69%4.69%
Growth Rate-1.23%-0.23%0.77%
Fair Value$33.74$44.86$60.13
Upside / Downside146.99%228.40%340.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,439.003,431.263,423.543,415.843,408.153,400.483,502.50
Payout Ratio42.37%51.89%61.42%70.95%80.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,457.001,780.602,102.752,423.432,742.663,060.433,239.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.69%4.69%4.69%
Growth Rate-1.23%-0.23%0.77%
Year 1 PV (M)1,683.781,700.831,717.88
Year 2 PV (M)1,880.291,918.551,957.20
Year 3 PV (M)2,049.212,112.082,176.23
Year 4 PV (M)2,193.042,283.212,376.13
Year 5 PV (M)2,314.082,433.612,558.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)144,929.48152,415.89160,208.51
Equity Value (M)155,049.89162,864.18170,993.99
Shares Outstanding (M)1,361.621,361.621,361.62
Fair Value$113.87$119.61$125.58
Upside / Downside733.61%775.63%819.34%

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