Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hubei Energy Group Co., Ltd. (000883.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$46.44 - $54.71$51.27
Multi-Stage$10.21 - $11.16$10.68
Blended Fair Value$30.97
Current Price$4.55
Upside580.75%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.55%19.00%0.270.060.160.130.110.120.110.100.100.07
YoY Growth--328.35%-60.30%26.20%20.00%-9.09%10.00%9.89%0.00%39.61%44.18%
Dividend Yield--5.69%1.19%3.79%2.96%1.65%3.29%2.48%2.22%1.96%1.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,689.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,573.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)116.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)337.88211.17126.70
Cash Retained (M)116.33116.33116.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-337.88-211.17-126.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)-221.55-94.85-10.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,141.046,141.046,141.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.020.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.020.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.25
WACC / Discount Rate5.87%5.87%5.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$46.44$51.27$54.71
Upside / Downside920.58%1,026.84%1,102.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,689.381,799.191,916.132,040.682,173.332,314.592,384.03
Payout Ratio93.11%92.49%91.87%91.25%90.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,573.051,664.091,760.331,862.041,969.532,083.142,205.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.87%5.87%5.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,557.041,571.801,586.55
Year 2 PV (M)1,541.121,570.471,600.10
Year 3 PV (M)1,525.291,569.071,613.69
Year 4 PV (M)1,509.551,567.611,627.32
Year 5 PV (M)1,493.911,566.061,640.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)55,063.0657,722.6360,483.98
Equity Value (M)62,689.9765,567.6468,552.63
Shares Outstanding (M)6,141.046,141.046,141.04
Fair Value$10.21$10.68$11.16
Upside / Downside124.36%134.66%145.34%

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