Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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GF Securities Co., Ltd. (000776.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$31.35 - $65.24$44.21
Multi-Stage$42.98 - $47.12$45.01
Blended Fair Value$44.61
Current Price$22.28
Upside100.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.05%5.85%0.550.471.261.050.930.790.980.901.430.52
YoY Growth--17.41%-62.84%19.90%12.14%18.29%-19.76%9.83%-37.29%174.93%67.53%
Dividend Yield--3.40%3.47%7.96%5.96%5.96%5.77%6.01%5.44%8.36%3.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,806.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,324.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,481.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,761.331,725.831,035.50
Cash Retained (M)5,481.755,481.755,481.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,761.33-1,725.83-1,035.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,720.413,755.914,446.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,793.177,793.177,793.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.480.57
LTM Dividend per Share1.071.071.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.480.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.421.551.64
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate2.05%3.05%4.05%
Fair Value$31.35$44.21$65.24
Upside / Downside40.71%98.41%192.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,806.6714,227.5914,661.3315,108.3015,568.9016,043.5316,524.84
Payout Ratio60.30%66.24%72.18%78.12%84.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,324.939,423.9410,582.2311,802.3913,087.1014,439.1815,285.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate2.05%3.05%4.05%
Year 1 PV (M)8,749.578,835.318,921.05
Year 2 PV (M)9,121.919,301.569,482.96
Year 3 PV (M)9,445.669,726.0710,011.98
Year 4 PV (M)9,724.3410,111.1410,509.37
Year 5 PV (M)9,961.2410,458.9610,976.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)287,938.51302,325.63317,282.19
Equity Value (M)334,941.22350,758.68367,183.93
Shares Outstanding (M)7,793.177,793.177,793.17
Fair Value$42.98$45.01$47.12
Upside / Downside92.90%102.01%111.47%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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