Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Anhui Gujing Distillery Co., Ltd. (000596.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$450.37 - $1,780.35$1,231.09
Multi-Stage$223.20 - $243.84$233.33
Blended Fair Value$732.21
Current Price$160.58
Upside355.98%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.94%29.80%4.533.002.211.441.431.430.950.570.100.19
YoY Growth--50.73%35.76%53.85%0.54%0.09%50.00%66.67%500.00%-50.00%-42.86%
Dividend Yield--2.66%1.12%0.75%0.84%0.68%1.25%0.88%0.97%0.19%0.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,730.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,192.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,538.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)946.19591.37354.82
Cash Retained (M)1,538.721,538.721,538.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-946.19-591.37-354.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)592.53947.351,183.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)528.48528.48528.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.121.792.24
LTM Dividend per Share6.046.046.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.121.792.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.167.838.28
WACC / Discount Rate7.18%7.18%7.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$450.37$1,231.09$1,780.35
Upside / Downside180.47%666.65%1,008.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,730.965,038.475,365.975,714.766,086.226,481.836,676.28
Payout Ratio67.48%71.98%76.49%80.99%85.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,192.243,626.714,104.184,628.405,203.425,833.646,175.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.18%7.18%7.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,352.063,383.833,415.60
Year 2 PV (M)3,506.103,572.883,640.29
Year 3 PV (M)3,654.493,759.403,866.29
Year 4 PV (M)3,797.383,943.414,093.62
Year 5 PV (M)3,934.904,124.954,322.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)99,710.33104,526.37109,526.74
Equity Value (M)117,955.24123,310.84128,864.83
Shares Outstanding (M)528.48528.48528.48
Fair Value$223.20$233.33$243.84
Upside / Downside39.00%45.31%51.85%

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