Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $1,012.29 - $1,412.18 | $1,212.02 |
| Multi-Stage | $3,278.22 - $3,615.36 | $3,443.35 |
| Blended Fair Value | $2,327.69 | |
| Current Price | $1,995.00 | |
| Upside | 16.68% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -10.09% | 4.48% | 280.34 | 324.24 | 299.48 | 249.50 | 389.32 | 477.27 | 259.37 | 179.69 | 119.94 | 195.94 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -13.54% | 8.27% | 20.03% | -35.91% | -18.43% | 84.01% | 44.35% | 49.81% | -38.78% | 8.32% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 13.61% | 9.74% | 7.45% | 6.53% | 10.14% | 10.05% | 3.63% | 3.46% | 2.73% | 3.63% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 141,742.05 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 140,452.52 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,289.53 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 28,348.41 | 17,717.76 | 10,630.65 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,289.53 | 1,289.53 | 1,289.53 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -28,348.41 | -17,717.76 | -10,630.65 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -27,058.88 | -16,428.23 | -9,341.12 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 800.66 | 800.66 | 800.66 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -33.80 | -20.52 | -11.67 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 175.42 | 175.42 | 175.42 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -33.80 | -20.52 | -11.67 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 141.63 | 154.90 | 163.75 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.24% | 6.24% | 6.24% |
| Growth Rate | -6.80% | -5.80% | -4.80% |
| Fair Value | $1,012.29 | $1,212.02 | $1,412.18 |
| Upside / Downside | -49.26% | -39.25% | -29.21% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 141,742.05 | 133,519.99 | 125,774.86 | 118,479.01 | 111,606.37 | 105,132.40 | 108,286.37 |
| Payout Ratio | 99.09% | 97.27% | 95.45% | 93.64% | 91.82% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 140,452.52 | 129,877.81 | 120,057.31 | 110,939.11 | 102,474.79 | 94,619.16 | 100,164.89 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.24% | 6.24% | 6.24% |
| Growth Rate | -6.80% | -5.80% | -4.80% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 120,953.45 | 122,251.24 | 123,549.03 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 104,125.05 | 106,371.50 | 108,641.92 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 89,605.49 | 92,520.86 | 95,498.80 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 77,081.52 | 80,443.39 | 83,914.05 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 66,282.00 | 69,915.06 | 73,705.71 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 2,166,689.15 | 2,285,450.08 | 2,409,362.47 |
| Equity Value (M) | 2,624,736.64 | 2,756,952.12 | 2,894,671.98 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 800.66 | 800.66 | 800.66 |
| Fair Value | $3,278.22 | $3,443.35 | $3,615.36 |
| Upside / Downside | 64.32% | 72.60% | 81.22% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACIC | American Coastal Insurance Corporation | 4.24% | $0.48 | 28.28% |
| NCDL | Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. | 4.24% | $0.57 | 30.88% |
| ES | Eversource Energy | 4.23% | $2.88 | 79.84% |
| ISBC | Investors Bancorp, Inc. | 4.21% | $0.58 | 44.24% |
| KMI | Kinder Morgan, Inc. | 4.21% | $1.17 | 95.05% |
| PWOD | Penns Woods Bancorp, Inc. | 4.17% | $1.25 | 45.44% |
| DDS | Dillard's, Inc. | 4.16% | $26.50 | 71.17% |
| RLI | RLI Corp. | 4.16% | $2.60 | 67.96% |
| TFC | Truist Financial Corporation | 4.16% | $2.07 | 53.19% |
| RMBI | Richmond Mutual Bancorporation, Inc. | 4.15% | $0.58 | 54.33% |
| PR | Permian Resources Corporation | 4.14% | $0.60 | 52.90% |
| RILYT | B. Riley Financial, Inc. 6.00% Senior Notes Due 2028 | 4.13% | $0.58 | 56.91% |
| DGICA | Donegal Group Inc. | 4.12% | $0.80 | 28.85% |
| AUBN | Auburn National Bancorporation, Inc. | 4.11% | $1.08 | 76.62% |
| FHB | First Hawaiian, Inc. | 4.11% | $1.06 | 50.97% |
| POR | Portland General Electric Company | 4.09% | $1.98 | 72.28% |
| NEWTL | Newtek Business Services Corp. | 4.08% | $1.02 | 44.14% |
| NEWTG | NewtekOne, Inc. 8.50% Fixed Rate Senior Notes due 2029 | 4.06% | $1.02 | 44.14% |
| NEWTZ | Newtek Business Services Corp. 5.50% Notes Due 2026 | 4.05% | $1.02 | 44.14% |
| LKQ | LKQ Corporation | 4.04% | $1.21 | 44.76% |
| NWE | Northwestern Energy Group Inc | 4.04% | $2.62 | 74.07% |
| PXD | Pioneer Natural Resources Company | 4.00% | $10.80 | 54.25% |
| HAFC | Hanmi Financial Corporation | 3.99% | $1.07 | 44.22% |
| KSS | Kohl's Corporation | 3.99% | $0.85 | 50.52% |
| APA | APA Corporation | 3.98% | $1.01 | 24.12% |
| NWN | Northwest Natural Holding Company | 3.98% | $1.86 | 76.25% |
| HFWA | Heritage Financial Corporation | 3.97% | $0.94 | 56.54% |
| WSBC | WesBanco, Inc. | 3.97% | $1.32 | 65.39% |
| FULT | Fulton Financial Corporation | 3.96% | $0.77 | 39.22% |
| REYN | Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. | 3.96% | $0.91 | 63.16% |
| MSM | MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. | 3.95% | $3.39 | 95.14% |
| RF-PF | Regions Financial Corporation | 3.95% | $1.01 | 41.98% |
| NEWTI | NewtekOne, Inc. 8.00% Fixed Rate Senior Notes due 2028 | 3.94% | $0.99 | 42.24% |
| BOH | Bank of Hawaii Corporation | 3.93% | $2.69 | 58.42% |
| DCOM | Dime Community Bancshares, Inc. | 3.93% | $1.17 | 86.59% |
| OGE | OGE Energy Corp. | 3.93% | $1.69 | 67.72% |
| ASIEX | Multisector Income Fund - Investor Class | 3.92% | $0.35 | 96.64% |
| ESS | Essex Property Trust, Inc. | 3.90% | $10.03 | 76.31% |
| WABC | Westamerica Bancorporation | 3.90% | $1.86 | 39.32% |
| NJR | New Jersey Resources Corporation | 3.88% | $1.78 | 53.65% |
| XHR | Xenia Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | 3.88% | $0.56 | 93.99% |
| ARTNA | Artesian Resources Corporation | 3.87% | $1.22 | 55.68% |
| FFBC | First Financial Bancorp. | 3.87% | $0.97 | 38.17% |
| PNW | Pinnacle West Capital Corporation | 3.87% | $3.41 | 69.92% |
| UE | Urban Edge Properties | 3.87% | $0.74 | 82.23% |
| NECB | Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. | 3.86% | $0.88 | 27.20% |
| SCSCX | Touchstone Large Cap Focused Fund Class C | 3.86% | $2.80 | 37.43% |
| BBWI | Bath & Body Works, Inc. | 3.85% | $0.80 | 24.18% |
| BHB | Bar Harbor Bankshares | 3.85% | $1.20 | 54.11% |
| UGI | UGI Corporation | 3.85% | $1.45 | 47.35% |