Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Fundamentals

Valuations

Miscellaneous

Analysis Mode

Search

Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Gambling, Resorts & CasinosSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$129.43 - $343.34$197.91
Multi-Stage$86.87 - $95.01$90.86
Blended Fair Value$144.39
Current Price$97.01
Upside48.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.63%6.76%0.400.370.360.340.320.300.320.290.260.24
YoY Growth--7.75%4.23%4.84%5.98%5.41%-6.33%10.23%12.57%9.65%14.70%
Dividend Yield--0.36%0.30%0.28%0.31%0.28%0.59%0.72%0.72%0.99%0.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)403.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)372.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)80.6450.4030.24
Cash Retained (M)372.50372.50372.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-80.64-50.40-30.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)291.86322.10342.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)73.0873.0873.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.994.414.68
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.994.414.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.414.835.10
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$129.43$197.91$343.34
Upside / Downside33.42%104.01%253.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)403.20429.41457.32487.05518.70552.42568.99
Payout Ratio7.61%24.09%40.57%57.05%73.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.70103.45185.53277.84381.37497.18526.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)93.9394.8295.71
Year 2 PV (M)152.96155.87158.82
Year 3 PV (M)207.99213.96220.05
Year 4 PV (M)259.23269.20279.45
Year 5 PV (M)306.86321.68337.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,327.095,584.405,851.54
Equity Value (M)6,348.076,639.946,942.64
Shares Outstanding (M)73.0873.0873.08
Fair Value$86.87$90.86$95.01
Upside / Downside-10.45%-6.33%-2.06%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

« Prev Page 8 of 30 Next »
Ticker Company Dividend Yield % Dividend Per Share Payout Ratio %
ACICAmerican Coastal Insurance Corporation4.24%$0.4828.28%
NCDLNuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.4.24%$0.5730.88%
ESEversource Energy4.23%$2.8879.84%
ISBCInvestors Bancorp, Inc.4.21%$0.5844.24%
KMIKinder Morgan, Inc.4.21%$1.1795.05%
PWODPenns Woods Bancorp, Inc.4.17%$1.2545.44%
DDSDillard's, Inc.4.16%$26.5071.17%
RLIRLI Corp.4.16%$2.6067.96%
TFCTruist Financial Corporation4.16%$2.0753.19%
RMBIRichmond Mutual Bancorporation, Inc.4.15%$0.5854.33%
PRPermian Resources Corporation4.14%$0.6052.90%
RILYTB. Riley Financial, Inc. 6.00% Senior Notes Due 20284.13%$0.5856.91%
DGICADonegal Group Inc.4.12%$0.8028.85%
AUBNAuburn National Bancorporation, Inc.4.11%$1.0876.62%
FHBFirst Hawaiian, Inc.4.11%$1.0650.97%
PORPortland General Electric Company4.09%$1.9872.28%
NEWTLNewtek Business Services Corp.4.08%$1.0244.14%
NEWTGNewtekOne, Inc. 8.50% Fixed Rate Senior Notes due 20294.06%$1.0244.14%
NEWTZNewtek Business Services Corp. 5.50% Notes Due 20264.05%$1.0244.14%
LKQLKQ Corporation4.04%$1.2144.76%
NWENorthwestern Energy Group Inc4.04%$2.6274.07%
PXDPioneer Natural Resources Company4.00%$10.8054.25%
HAFCHanmi Financial Corporation3.99%$1.0744.22%
KSSKohl's Corporation3.99%$0.8550.52%
APAAPA Corporation3.98%$1.0124.12%
NWNNorthwest Natural Holding Company3.98%$1.8676.25%
HFWAHeritage Financial Corporation3.97%$0.9456.54%
WSBCWesBanco, Inc.3.97%$1.3265.39%
FULTFulton Financial Corporation3.96%$0.7739.22%
REYNReynolds Consumer Products Inc.3.96%$0.9163.16%
MSMMSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc.3.95%$3.3995.14%
RF-PFRegions Financial Corporation3.95%$1.0141.98%
NEWTINewtekOne, Inc. 8.00% Fixed Rate Senior Notes due 20283.94%$0.9942.24%
BOHBank of Hawaii Corporation3.93%$2.6958.42%
DCOMDime Community Bancshares, Inc.3.93%$1.1786.59%
OGEOGE Energy Corp.3.93%$1.6967.72%
ASIEXMultisector Income Fund - Investor Class3.92%$0.3596.64%
ESSEssex Property Trust, Inc.3.90%$10.0376.31%
WABCWestamerica Bancorporation3.90%$1.8639.32%
NJRNew Jersey Resources Corporation3.88%$1.7853.65%
XHRXenia Hotels & Resorts, Inc.3.88%$0.5693.99%
ARTNAArtesian Resources Corporation3.87%$1.2255.68%
FFBCFirst Financial Bancorp.3.87%$0.9738.17%
PNWPinnacle West Capital Corporation3.87%$3.4169.92%
UEUrban Edge Properties3.87%$0.7482.23%
NECBNortheast Community Bancorp, Inc.3.86%$0.8827.20%
SCSCXTouchstone Large Cap Focused Fund Class C3.86%$2.8037.43%
BBWIBath & Body Works, Inc.3.85%$0.8024.18%
BHBBar Harbor Bankshares3.85%$1.2054.11%
UGIUGI Corporation3.85%$1.4547.35%