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TriMas Corporation (TRS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.60 - $10.93$9.22
Multi-Stage$12.06 - $13.26$12.65
Blended Fair Value$10.94
Current Price$38.64
Upside-71.69%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.160.160.170.040.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---1.04%-2.62%295.40%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.69%0.62%0.60%0.13%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)44.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)37.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.825.513.31
Cash Retained (M)37.4837.4837.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.82-5.51-3.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)28.6631.9734.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)40.9940.9940.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.700.780.83
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.700.780.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.860.940.99
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$7.60$9.22$10.93
Upside / Downside-80.34%-76.13%-71.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)44.0843.6443.2042.7742.3441.9243.18
Payout Ratio14.97%29.98%44.98%59.99%74.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.6013.0819.4325.6631.7537.7339.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)11.8711.9912.11
Year 2 PV (M)16.0016.3316.66
Year 3 PV (M)19.1719.7620.36
Year 4 PV (M)21.5222.4223.33
Year 5 PV (M)23.2024.4125.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)402.79423.77445.60
Equity Value (M)494.55518.67543.74
Shares Outstanding (M)40.9940.9940.99
Fair Value$12.06$12.65$13.26
Upside / Downside-68.78%-67.25%-65.67%

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