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JinGuan Electric Co., Ltd. (688517.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.66 - $47.75$24.95
Multi-Stage$16.33 - $17.87$17.09
Blended Fair Value$21.02
Current Price$15.34
Upside37.01%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS14.59%0.00%0.510.210.430.010.010.260.000.290.000.00
YoY Growth--137.36%-50.48%4,156.27%-24.31%-94.78%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.66%1.70%2.26%0.07%0.09%1.65%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)84.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)77.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.8110.516.30
Cash Retained (M)7.037.037.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.81-10.51-6.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)-9.78-3.480.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)136.14136.14136.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.07-0.030.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.570.570.57
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.07-0.030.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.540.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.65%6.65%6.65%
Growth Rate3.39%4.39%5.39%
Fair Value$15.66$24.95$47.75
Upside / Downside2.10%62.63%211.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)84.0587.7491.6095.6299.83104.21107.34
Payout Ratio91.64%91.31%90.98%90.66%90.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)77.0280.1283.3486.6990.1793.7999.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.65%6.65%6.65%
Growth Rate3.39%4.39%5.39%
Year 1 PV (M)74.4075.1275.84
Year 2 PV (M)71.8773.2774.68
Year 3 PV (M)69.4271.4573.53
Year 4 PV (M)67.0569.6972.40
Year 5 PV (M)64.7767.9671.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,876.171,968.672,064.79
Equity Value (M)2,223.692,326.162,432.51
Shares Outstanding (M)136.14136.14136.14
Fair Value$16.33$17.09$17.87
Upside / Downside6.48%11.39%16.48%

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