Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Trican Well Service Ltd. (TCW.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.22 - $6.15$5.15
Multi-Stage$7.27 - $7.98$7.62
Blended Fair Value$6.38
Current Price$4.51
Upside41.55%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%-2.27%0.190.180.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.12
YoY Growth--3.61%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-50.05%
Dividend Yield--4.00%4.37%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%9.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)107.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)38.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)69.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.5713.488.09
Cash Retained (M)69.3769.3769.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.57-13.48-8.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)47.8055.8861.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)190.67190.67190.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.290.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.290.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.490.52
WACC / Discount Rate8.51%8.51%8.51%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.22$5.15$6.15
Upside / Downside-6.46%14.22%36.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)107.85106.77105.71104.65103.60102.57105.64
Payout Ratio35.68%46.55%57.41%68.27%79.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)38.4949.7060.6971.4581.9992.3197.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.51%8.51%8.51%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)45.3445.8046.26
Year 2 PV (M)50.5051.5452.59
Year 3 PV (M)54.2455.9257.63
Year 4 PV (M)56.7859.1361.56
Year 5 PV (M)58.3261.3664.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,120.141,178.461,239.20
Equity Value (M)1,385.321,452.221,521.76
Shares Outstanding (M)190.67190.67190.67
Fair Value$7.27$7.62$7.98
Upside / Downside61.10%68.88%76.96%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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