Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

SHAPE Australia Corporation Limited (SHA.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$72.66 - $85.62$80.23
Multi-Stage$49.87 - $54.75$52.26
Blended Fair Value$66.25
Current Price$4.45
Upside1,388.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS6.65%17.95%0.180.140.070.100.150.130.110.080.050.04
YoY Growth--29.75%107.33%-28.96%-34.03%9.46%21.73%37.64%71.45%24.24%5.79%
Dividend Yield--4.12%6.20%4.67%5.08%7.24%6.62%5.44%3.95%2.30%1.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)37.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)13.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.434.642.79
Cash Retained (M)13.4213.4213.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.43-4.64-2.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.008.7810.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)85.5885.5885.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.100.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.100.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate1.59%1.59%1.59%
Growth Rate4.65%5.65%6.65%
Fair Value$72.66$80.23$85.62
Upside / Downside1,532.81%1,702.95%1,824.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)37.1439.2441.4643.8046.2848.8950.36
Payout Ratio63.86%69.08%74.31%79.54%84.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23.7127.1130.8134.8439.2344.0046.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.59%1.59%1.59%
Growth Rate4.65%5.65%6.65%
Year 1 PV (M)26.4326.6826.94
Year 2 PV (M)29.2929.8530.42
Year 3 PV (M)32.3033.2334.18
Year 4 PV (M)35.4636.8338.25
Year 5 PV (M)38.7840.6742.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,105.654,305.594,513.24
Equity Value (M)4,267.914,472.864,685.66
Shares Outstanding (M)85.5885.5885.58
Fair Value$49.87$52.26$54.75
Upside / Downside1,020.64%1,074.45%1,130.33%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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