Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

China South Publishing & Media Group Co., Ltd (601098.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: PublishingSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.40 - $24.88$18.10
Multi-Stage$14.19 - $15.50$14.83
Blended Fair Value$16.47
Current Price$12.28
Upside34.10%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.28%12.51%0.650.600.660.630.620.610.600.500.290.27
YoY Growth--8.33%-8.05%3.54%1.61%1.67%1.67%20.00%72.41%7.41%35.00%
Dividend Yield--4.66%4.70%5.63%6.68%5.94%5.77%4.62%3.94%1.62%1.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,583.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)987.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)595.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)316.75197.97118.78
Cash Retained (M)595.96595.96595.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-316.75-197.97-118.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)279.21397.99477.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,786.811,786.811,786.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.220.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.550.550.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.220.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.710.780.82
WACC / Discount Rate8.82%8.82%8.82%
Growth Rate3.35%4.35%5.35%
Fair Value$13.40$18.10$24.88
Upside / Downside9.08%47.40%102.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,583.761,652.661,724.551,799.581,877.861,959.562,018.34
Payout Ratio62.37%67.90%73.42%78.95%84.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)987.801,122.101,266.211,420.731,586.311,763.601,866.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.82%8.82%8.82%
Growth Rate3.35%4.35%5.35%
Year 1 PV (M)1,021.251,031.141,041.02
Year 2 PV (M)1,048.851,069.241,089.84
Year 3 PV (M)1,071.091,102.481,134.48
Year 4 PV (M)1,088.441,131.181,175.17
Year 5 PV (M)1,101.341,155.661,212.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,027.9121,015.7822,042.24
Equity Value (M)25,358.8826,505.4827,694.85
Shares Outstanding (M)1,786.811,786.811,786.81
Fair Value$14.19$14.83$15.50
Upside / Downside15.57%20.80%26.22%

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