Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

nForce Secure Public Company Limited (SECURE.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.10 - $13.03$11.02
Multi-Stage$14.93 - $16.37$15.64
Blended Fair Value$13.33
Current Price$12.90
Upside3.33%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.03%0.00%0.650.300.180.350.560.650.620.000.000.00
YoY Growth--116.67%66.67%-49.22%-36.55%-13.91%3.95%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.70%2.14%1.12%1.24%3.49%4.06%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)134.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)71.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)62.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.9716.8610.11
Cash Retained (M)62.9362.9362.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.97-16.86-10.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)35.9646.0852.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)102.74102.74102.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.450.51
LTM Dividend per Share0.700.700.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.450.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.051.151.21
WACC / Discount Rate9.35%9.35%9.35%
Growth Rate-1.97%-0.97%0.03%
Fair Value$9.10$11.02$13.03
Upside / Downside-29.50%-14.55%1.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)134.85133.54132.25130.97129.70128.45132.30
Payout Ratio53.33%60.66%68.00%75.33%82.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)71.9281.0189.9398.66107.22115.60122.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.35%9.35%9.35%
Growth Rate-1.97%-0.97%0.03%
Year 1 PV (M)73.3474.0974.84
Year 2 PV (M)73.7075.2176.73
Year 3 PV (M)73.1975.4677.77
Year 4 PV (M)72.0174.9978.07
Year 5 PV (M)70.2873.9477.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,171.781,232.781,296.29
Equity Value (M)1,534.301,606.461,681.44
Shares Outstanding (M)102.74102.74102.74
Fair Value$14.93$15.64$16.37
Upside / Downside15.76%21.21%26.87%

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