Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Radian Group Inc. (RDN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - SpecialtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$42.20 - $67.64$53.72
Multi-Stage$69.63 - $76.51$73.00
Blended Fair Value$63.36
Current Price$36.22
Upside74.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS136.34%55.28%1.061.010.940.720.680.010.010.010.010.01
YoY Growth--4.15%7.73%31.11%5.99%4,628.68%-3.69%-0.65%2.33%5.46%7.02%
Dividend Yield--3.19%3.09%4.26%3.23%2.91%0.11%0.07%0.08%0.08%0.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)576.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)147.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)428.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)115.2272.0143.21
Cash Retained (M)428.61428.61428.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-115.22-72.01-43.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)313.39356.60385.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)143.98143.98143.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.182.482.68
LTM Dividend per Share1.021.021.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.182.482.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.203.503.70
WACC / Discount Rate7.44%7.44%7.44%
Growth Rate-0.13%0.87%1.87%
Fair Value$42.20$53.72$67.64
Upside / Downside16.52%48.30%86.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)576.09581.08586.12591.20596.33601.50619.54
Payout Ratio25.60%38.48%51.36%64.24%77.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)147.48223.60301.03379.79459.89541.35573.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.44%7.44%7.44%
Growth Rate-0.13%0.87%1.87%
Year 1 PV (M)206.05208.11210.18
Year 2 PV (M)255.63260.78265.97
Year 3 PV (M)297.20306.22315.41
Year 4 PV (M)331.64345.12359.01
Year 5 PV (M)359.74378.11397.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,574.739,012.729,468.43
Equity Value (M)10,024.9910,511.0611,016.24
Shares Outstanding (M)143.98143.98143.98
Fair Value$69.63$73.00$76.51
Upside / Downside92.23%101.55%111.24%

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